Harmon's LV Bowl Pick

On paper, this looks like a 31-10 BYU win. But I have an issue with that.

Picking this one is tougher than one would think when you consider the point spread. That’s what folks do in this town. The line Friday night was BYU by 6 and a half.

I think BYU will win this game. They are more healthy than UCLA, more consistent, have a home field advantage at Sam Boyd Stadium and will feature a far more productive offense.

Having said that, however, respect must be thrown UCLA’s way because of the ULCA defense. I watched Bruin practices this week and DeWayne Walker has a fast, efficient way of preparing for BYU’s offense with his scout team. In short, every BYU offensive play is skillfully duplicated to put defenders in a position to make plays. The Bruins have scripted out every single Cougar run and pass play and this will show in the blue zone when BYU has a short field and the Bruins will try and take away the pearls.

This is where I believe Robert Anae needs to do more tweaking of the offense. He need so peel off a receiver or tight end in another direction or change up a formation. I’m not saying he won’t do this, but as shown in the Utah game and the last UCLA game, the Cougars go up and down the field but really struggle to score when a good defensive staff knows exactly what is coming and places defenders in the right place.

BYU’s offense is based on execution, not deception. By this, Anae believes if his guys execute, they will win on the play and there is nothing the defense can do to stop it. That might work in the MWC, but against UCLA, which has three All-Americans in DE Bruce Davis, CB Trey Brown and SS Chris Horton, the other guys are going to make some big plays.

I can’t see UCLA scoring more than 10 points on the Cougars with their offense and that’s help from some BYU turnovers. If they get more than two, say three or four, they could score 14 or 17. On the other side of the coin, USC scored only 24 on the Bruin defense in an emotional rivalry game in Los Angeles ‘ can BYU score more than that?

I think if UCLA comes out trying to do a Tulsa and letting it fly with some questionable QB work, they will throw interceptions. I don’t think they can run the ball with a back, the QB may get loose for some big runs, he’s a good athlete, this Ossar Rashaan guy. If an immobile Ben Olson takes to the field, BYU will have a field day.

I think it’s reasonable to assume BYU’s consistency in keeping the ball moving, converting third downs and having a balanced attack will get the Cougars to at least 14 and it could be 17 and that is being conservative.

If UCLA’s offense, with a makeshift QB situation, puts up a lot of three and outs and turns the ball over, I think BYU matches USC’s 24 or more. But I don’t see this one getting into the 30s for the Cougars unless UCLA’s offense absolutely takes a turf dive and stinks. UCLA will get lucky on a big play or two, a long pass or a kickoff return.

I see this BYU game like the BYU Utah game. The Cougars pile up a lot of stats but don’t necessarily get the points to go with them. Bowls are always an execution problem for the Cougars. May that changes this time around, however.

Harvey Unga is good, but he’s not a hundred percent. He’ll get shot up and I think he’ll do pretty good, but he’s not going against SDSU’s non-tackling defense that made Fui Vakapuna look all-MWC.

I had Navy beating Utah in my bowl predictions posted last Sunday and then I changed the pick before it went to press, giving Utah the benefit of the doubt and had it something like 29-28 or 28-27. Navy fumbled inside the Utah five and missed a field goal ‘ it was that close. A lot of folks didn’t respect Navy, I did. I also believed a good rush attack, that attacks Utah’s defense straight on consistently, will have success.

I respect the Bruins, even if their offense continues to resemble pasture biscuits. I just don’t know what that means for UCLA point production.

I’ll call this one BYU 21, UCLA 14.