Pregame predictions from Vegas

It’s 30 minutes before tipoff of the MWC semifinals and time to make the picks.

I promise, I won’t come back and change them if I blow it. This will stand.

I think BYU and Utah will both win. I know, it sounds crazy. SDSU has given BYU fits over the years and both games were tight this year. And UNLV is a better team than Utah, but…

I think the Aztecs are experiencing some flu bug the past few days. I saw a few of them in the South Point lobby this morning and they were dragging. Plus, I don’t know if Lorrenzo Wade can have the near perfect game he did against the Cougars in San Diego. On that night, he was a machine. If he’d tripped up just a couple of times, BYU would have won. I think Sam Burgess is a better defender than he was even two weeks ago…if Burgess can stay out of foul trouble and keep Dave Rose from having to put Lee Cummard on Lorrenzo, this is BYU’s night.

As for the Utes, their big problem this season is winning close games and they’ve had a ton of them. They rarely get blown out and I believe UNLV, as talented as they are, they are vulnerable in a tournament like this. They are going to slide tonight or in the championship game due to lack of depth. Three games in three days saps a lot of energy and the Rebs used up a lot of it in dispatching TCU which outplayed them. They were lucky.

I think Utah works Nevill on the Rebs and if he’s up to the task, they can’t stop him inside. The way UNLV wins this one is to do their trap and press stuff and get a ton of turnovers off the Utes. But they haven’t really done that in both games with Utah to the extent that it was a major problem. Utah has been right there, winning in SLC by 8 over these guys. I think UNLV’s home court advantage is there, but reduced by about three points in this tournament.

Utah’s going to have to make plays at the end, however. Against UNM, they finally did, but looked like they’d give it way in regulation and again in overtime. That is the X factor with the Utes tonight, can they finish?

Just my pre-game thinking.