BYU-Utah: Statistics may be the dumbest factor

There are some interesting statistics about the BYU-Utah rivalry floating around.

Things like the team with the best pass efficiency differential usually wins, and BYU has that advantage this year once more.

Another is that the team who leads the other in 30 statistical categories put out by the conference has generally won since 1990 and Utah now leads in 20 of 30.

But there are statistics and then there are “danged” statistics and in this rivalry, you can generally throw them all out, including this one: that the home team usually loses the past dozen years.

But a closer look at the statistical categories is interesting. Of the ones listed on the conference report on the NCAA website, BYU is first in six of them. Utah is first in one and in the majority of categories, both are close, so very close that statistically, there is only a few yards or averages in the difference.

The Cougars are first in the MWC in fumbles recovered, net punting, pass offense, pass efficiency, total offense and turnovers gained. Utah is first in scoring offense, replacing BYU after killing SDSU last Saturday with two late interception pick sixes. Even so, the difference is Utah 36.45 ppg and BYU is 36.36 ppg. We’re talking tenths of a point here, but Utah does lead.

If SDSU takes a knee instead of throwing those two pick sixes against the Utes last week, BYU would lead in the scoring offense category this week. Kind of dumb, huh?

Another situation is scoring defense. Utah is second in the MWC behind TCU by holding foes to 16.6 points per game, good for 13th nationally. BYU is third, behind Utah, by allowing 18.73 points a game. If you take away the three scores at CSU that were basically because of BYU’s offense, there would be little difference between Utah and BYU – yet the Utes lead BYU in that category.

Here’s another category. Utah leads BYU in pass defense, but both trail TCU and AFA. Utah ranks No. 4 in pass defense, 35th nationally by allowing 189 yards per game. BYU, one may think, would be way behind. But BYU is sixth in the MWC and 53rd nationally but gives up an average of 197 ypg. That’s a difference of about 8 yards a game. Yawn.

Here’s another category where the Utes lead the Cougars – pass efficiency defense. The Utes are No. 2 in the league and 36th nationally, allowing opponents a 113.46 efficiency. One would think BYU is light years behind because of the passed completed by UNLV and CSU. Nada. BYU is No. 4 in the MWC and 42nd in the nation by allowing opponents a 116.46 efficiency, just three points behind the Utes. If Omar Clayton hadn’t been so hot that day and BYU’s secondary wouldn’t have given up 10 to 15 yards on alignments and third downs, it would probably be the same.

Of course, if the queen had…

So, as you go down the line, there are leaders in categories and then there are big huge advantages in categories, but in general, the two teams are very similar. One of Utah’s biggest advantages is in total defense (284.73 ypg), 11th in the country and No. 2 in the league. BYU is No. 6 in the league (345.09 ypg ), which is 54th nationally. But BYU’s defense is designed to give up yards, not points and in that regard both are about the same (18 to 16 ppg).

All of these statistics make for interesting debate or analysis. But in this game, they mean very little, whether they favor the Utes or the Cougars. In the last 20 years, both teams have won 10 games.