Breaking down Arizona versus BYU

Our Deseret News team arrived safe and sound in Las Vegas and set up camp at the Residence Inn where Jeff Call and I join Aaron Shill from the Mormon Times.

I left about three hours ahead of Call and Shill, who came with two photographers in a rented Pathfinder. A third photographer will join us the night before the game.

Today was my birthday and I celebrated it by driving through a snowstorm. The worse stretch of I-15 was south of Cedar City where it was a white out and you could hardly see the freeway. The guys behind me didn’t run into that kind of weather.

Birthdays? Mine today. Pat Kinahan of 1320 AM, who will be down here Thursday, told me he’ll celebrate his birthday Wednesday. On game day, KSL color man Mark Lyons celebrates his birthday (if I remember correctly from our conversation at practice on Tuesday).

On the way down here, I discussed the nuts and bolts of the matchup via cell phone with several informed folks. The consensus is that this will be a close one. BYU coaches are telling players Arizona is the best team they’ve played this year in terms of how they execute and the talent on the field.

One of the conversations I had was with former BYU linebacker Markell Staffieri, who is now a financial planner in San Diego.

I asked Markell if he’d mind dropping me a few of his bowl thoughts and I’d post them on this blog when I got to Las Vegas. He was kind enough to sit down and jot down his take. By the time I pulled into the hotel, he’d sent it to me.

Here is his analysis of this game:

By Markell Staffieri

I look at this game on paper and it is a draw. You can break down all the numbers you want and they will tell you that it’s going to be a 28-28 tie. Vegas gives AZ 3 points because they are supposedly from a superior conference, the PAC-1 (That is not a type-o). So what’s the real line on these two teams?

I will admit I have not watched all of Arizona’s games this year, but I have watched a few. I wish I would have seen the USC game to see what made Arizona so great that week, but alas, I missed it. In the games I have seen and the experience I had playing against the Wildcats, I just don’t see what all the fuss is about. Their offensive scheme is about like ours at its core. The run styles are different. UofA relies on quick shiftier backs, while we have Thunder and, well, Thunder. Their philosophy is to run by you, ours is to run you over and wear you down. Personally I like BYUs approach because speed can be corralled, but when you are getting run over play after play, you can’t really stop that. Both run defenses have been a weak this year so I don’t foresee too many stalemates at the LOS. One thing I can say for BYU’s run D though is that they went against a tough Utah run game that hadn’t been stopped all year, and they shut it down when it really mattered.

The pass offense for both schools is even only because our pass D is weaker than theirs. If I were putting together my own passing attack though, I would much rather have Collie, Pitta and Reed, to their Thomas, Dean and Gronkowski. It’s not even close. Austin Collie has proven week in and week out that he is the nation’s top receiver! Not one secondary has stopped him or even showed signs of slowing him down. I think our D is at an advantage by being able to face superior execution of the offense with better receivers. They should be well prepared.

With all this analysis aside, I think this game is going to come down to 3 things; 1) Emotion 2) Intensity and 3) Physical Play.

Emotion: How bad do you want it? How important is this game to you and your program? For Arizona this program gives them back their credibility as one of the Pac 1′s tough teams. For BYU it re-affirms their position as one of the nation’s top teams and catapults them into next year with a real shot at bigger goals.

Intensity: How does the emotion translate onto the field? Does it cause you to play that much harder? To finish each run, block and tackle?

But the team the wins on Saturday is the team that plays the most physical. If this game plays out like most suspect ‘ close ‘ then the team that walks away victorious will have to wear the other team down and literally beat them into submission. With BYU’s O-Line and Running Backs, they have the right mentality and that is why the Cougars will walk away with a 3rd straight Vegas Bowl win.

In days to come, I’ll have other takes on breaking down the game.

We’ll be at practice Wednesday for interviews.